Weekly Stock Market Update & SPY Technical Analysis This might be one of the most exciting, but nerve-wracking weeks for the stock market this year. The U.S. and Iran appear to be moving toward a historic peace framework, oil is already cooling off, and investors are quickly trying to price in what a lower geopolitical risk premium could mean for inflation, rates, and risk assets. At the same time, Kevin Warsh is preparing for his first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair, which adds another major variable to the market. Lower oil prices could help ease inflation fears, but the Fed still needs to prove it’s confident enough to eventually loosen policy. That makes this week extremely important…peace talks could give...
Weekly Stock Market Update & SPY Technical Analysis You can blame the war, oil prices, labor market data, or whatever breaking headline is dominating the news cycle, but at the core of it, last week’s market sell-off came down to one thing…interest rate expectations changed. For months, investors have been pricing in the idea that the Federal Reserve would eventually start cutting rates, giving the market a fresh tailwind. But once projections shifted and traders were forced to accept the possibility of higher rates for longer, risk assets quickly repriced. That matters because higher interest rates put pressure on almost everything. They make borrowing more expensive, slow down business investment, weigh on consumer spending, and reduce the value investors are...
Weekly Stock Market Update & SPY Technical Analysis This week marks the beginning of June…if you’re a kid in school, you’re looking forward to summer break, but if you’re an investor, you only have one thing on your mind…FOMC is only two weeks away. And while FOMC is a normal event on the market, this one is different. The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting that’s scheduled for mid-June is Kevin Warsh’s first since he became Chairman of the Fed. With Jerome Powell’s eight year leadership coming to an end, the market is eager, but nervous to hear what Warsh has to say. We wrote a section on Kevin Warsh in last week’s analysis, here’s a link for reference: What we Know...
A new Fed era begins this week. Kevin Warsh is officially taking over as Chair of the Federal Reserve, replacing Jerome Powell after eight years. That matters because the next phase of the market may depend less on earnings alone and more on how Warsh handles rates, inflation, and liquidity. Lower rate expectations could support risk assets, small caps, and growth stocks, but if inflation stays sticky, the Fed may not have as much room to ease as investors hope. What do we know about Kevin Warsh? He’s a strong advocate of balance sheet reduction. Warsh may be more open to lower rates if growth weakens, but he also appears committed to reducing the Fed’s balance sheet. So the market...
A Break in the AI-trade Did the “AI bubble” finally start to crack last week? After racing to record highs, AI leaders like Micron, Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell, and AMD sharply pulled back, with several posting their worst single day losses in weeks. The issue clearly isn’t AI demand. Applied Materials just issued strong guidance, forecasting semiconductor equipment sales growth of more than 30% this year, specifically pointing to AI and memory demand as key drivers. On top of that, AI CapEx is still climbing, directly funding the companies selling the “picks and shovels” behind the infrastructure boom. So what gives? Why the pullback? It comes back to one of the two biggest forces that drive markets: earnings and interest rates....
