SPY Chart done on hourly timeframe. Markets are getting ready to take on a new month after September once again proved to be a very volatile month. The volatility index (VIX) reached a high not seen since May, and SPY closed below 430.00 for the first time since June. This volatility is expected to continue this week as traders face a new uncertainty about the government shutdown. Analysts at Goldman Sachs are estimating that a government shutdown could cost the U.S. 0.2% in GDP growth per week that it is shutdown, plus major reporting agencies like the BEA would no longer report key economic data. The Fed rely on the BEA and BLS to make important monetary policy decisions, so...
SPY Chart done on hourly timeframe. Market volatility continued last week as traders and investors decide which direction to take next. Friday was especially notable for SPY because it recorded the largest volume seen since 6/16/2023, which was a bearish day followed by a full week of downside movement. The Market Volatility Index (VIX) also saw a sharp move up on Friday, likely due to the upcoming Fed’s meeting. The Federal Reserve will be holding its FOMC Policy Meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday to give an update on monetary policy and interest rates. Interest rate decisions are typically based on economic healthy and inflation, but although multiple inflation reports came in higher than expected this month, the probabilities for a...
SPY Chart done on hourly timeframe. A very eventful week is coming up for the markets as investors prepare for the latest inflation readings, Apple’s annual Keynote presentation, and retail sales data. Last week, The Fed’s Beige Book was released and it highlighted The Fed’s willingness to raise rates further if needed, but many members were optimistic that inflation is indeed on the right track of cooling down. The last CPI report showed a slight MoM uptick in inflation from 3.0% to 3.2%, the first uptick since June 2022, but still significantly down from the YoY number of 8.3%. All in all, inflation is moving on the right track, but The Fed are very cautious about taking their foot off...
SPY Chart done on hourly timeframe. Markets wrapped up a volatile August last week and started September with very little trading volume on Friday. Trading tensions were high through the week as mixed economic data poured in and left many questioning the new developments about inflation and the job market. The PCE report showed a YoY increase of 3.3% in inflation, higher than the previous month’s reading at 3%. The Fed’s target inflation reading is 2%, so an increase can result in further and lingering rate hikes. This week, The Fed’s Beige Book will be released and it is expected to detail the current health of the economy according to local and regional leaders. This book is released two weeks...
SPY Chart done on hourly timeframe. Major indexes continued to trade near their August lows last week despite stellar earnings from Nvidia. The company’s strong numbers weren’t enough to save the market from The Fed’s hawkish remarks at the Economic Symposium. Fed President Jerome Powell advocated for restrictive policy and maintained his viewpoint that inflation is still too high, so no sign of a definitive end for interest rate hikes yet. This week, which will wrap up August, we’ll get multiple reports about the current state of the U.S. labor market and inflation. The PCE index, which has steadily shown inflation is cooling down month over month, is expected on Thursday. This index is The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge so...
