Weekly Stock Market Update & SPY Technical Analysis If you look at the “usual” names, you’d think that the bull market has lost its touch. Yesterday’s hottest stocks are no longer charging higher, leaving many to wonder if the market rally is coming to an end. This couldn’t be further from the truth…in fact, this market rally is improving, in a way that investors have been awaiting for a very long time. Over the past decade, particularly the last six years, several technology companies grew larger than life…reaching trillions in market cap and leading indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 higher. While this was a rally worth enjoying, it simply was not sustainable. Market Breadth “Market breadth,” which...
Weekly Stock Market Update & SPY Technical Analysis Politics, economic data, and a new Fed chairman…each one of these points must be considered by traders and investors as we enter the last two weeks of June and deeper into the third quarter. The Current Geopolitical Situation You’re not alone in being completely unconvinced of any peace treaty between the U.S. and Iran, especially after recent reports of Israel increasing its attacks on Lebanon, threatening any sort of deal. Even President Trump is seemingly growing impatient with Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu’s fierce opposition. Why does this matter to us? Apart from us being human beings and having empathy towards the wars around the world…this matters to us as traders and investors...
Weekly Stock Market Update & SPY Technical Analysis This might be one of the most exciting, but nerve-wracking weeks for the stock market this year. The U.S. and Iran appear to be moving toward a historic peace framework, oil is already cooling off, and investors are quickly trying to price in what a lower geopolitical risk premium could mean for inflation, rates, and risk assets. At the same time, Kevin Warsh is preparing for his first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair, which adds another major variable to the market. Lower oil prices could help ease inflation fears, but the Fed still needs to prove it’s confident enough to eventually loosen policy. That makes this week extremely important…peace talks could give...
Weekly Stock Market Update & SPY Technical Analysis You can blame the war, oil prices, labor market data, or whatever breaking headline is dominating the news cycle, but at the core of it, last week’s market sell-off came down to one thing…interest rate expectations changed. For months, investors have been pricing in the idea that the Federal Reserve would eventually start cutting rates, giving the market a fresh tailwind. But once projections shifted and traders were forced to accept the possibility of higher rates for longer, risk assets quickly repriced. That matters because higher interest rates put pressure on almost everything. They make borrowing more expensive, slow down business investment, weigh on consumer spending, and reduce the value investors are...
Weekly Stock Market Update & SPY Technical Analysis This week marks the beginning of June…if you’re a kid in school, you’re looking forward to summer break, but if you’re an investor, you only have one thing on your mind…FOMC is only two weeks away. And while FOMC is a normal event on the market, this one is different. The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting that’s scheduled for mid-June is Kevin Warsh’s first since he became Chairman of the Fed. With Jerome Powell’s eight year leadership coming to an end, the market is eager, but nervous to hear what Warsh has to say. We wrote a section on Kevin Warsh in last week’s analysis, here’s a link for reference: What we Know...
