Weekly Stock Market Update & SPY Technical Analysis Volatility remains elevated on the market as traders and investors assess the latest China-U.S. trade developments, the government shutdown, weakness in the labor market, and the start of earnings season. Let’s focus on what we do know: China-U.S. trade developments: Trump said yesterday that the U.S. is in a trade war with China, but we do know that the meeting between him and President Xi is still scheduled with no confirmed date as of now. Trump plans to place 100% additional tariffs on China on November 1st, but we have seen him back out of such threats last minute. There’s a good chance that the tariffs won’t be placed and negotiations will...
Weekly Stock Market Update & SPY Technical Analysis Tariff fears are driving markets again, forcing U.S. equities to post their worst performance since April of this year. The sell-off wiped $1.5 trillion in market value across the market, with technology stocks leading the way down. What exactly happened?On Friday, Trump posted on Truth Social that China had been sending letters to countries across the world warning them that it would impose export restrictions on “each and every element of production having to do with Rare Earths, and virtually anything else they can think of.” He described the move as “shocking” and “hostile,” saying it “came out of nowhere” and alleging that other nations had already reached out to tell...
Weekly Stock Market Update & SPY Technical Analysis The government is shutdown, which means economic data is delayed. This adds vagueness to the already uncertain environment, but markets seem to be strutting along just fine. Fueled by excitement over artificial intelligence and lower interest rates, indexes reached new records last week. OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, hit a record $500 billion in valuation, making it the most valuable non-public company. This obviously helped names like Nvidia and other semiconductors reach all time highs and eclipsed all worries around the government shutdown and lack of economic data. What we should’ve gotten:Last week, markets were expecting the latest U.S. unemployment rate, which was forecasted to be 4.3%, but the shutdown prohibited the...
Weekly Stock Market Update & SPY Technical Analysis Labor market data is back in focus this week with several employment reports scheduled over the next five days. These numbers carry extra weight given growing concerns about the health of U.S. hiring. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted last week that weakness in the labor market was a key factor behind the recent rate cut, and revised data showed job creation has been well below average in recent months. The most closely watched release will be Friday’s unemployment rate, expected to hold steady at 4.3%. A surprise increase could raise fresh red flags, as elevated unemployment often signals recession risk, a scenario many economists already see as likely within the next year....
Weekly Stock Market Update & SPY Technical Analysis The long-awaited interest rate cut happened last week and it propelled markets to another new record high, this time pushing the small-cap Russell 2000 index to its first all time high in years. Now all major indexes are sitting at record highs, pushing valuations of the stock market to levels beyond the dot-com bubble. Despite the astronomical valuations, investors seem to be marching forward and remain optimistic thanks to artificial intelligence spending and ongoing support from the administration. This week’s focus shifts to inflation data, GDP, and more comments from Fed officials. Inflation data is especially important because this will be the very first report after the interest rate cut, and although...
