Weekly Stock Market Update & SPY Technical Analysis The government is shutdown, which means economic data is delayed. This adds vagueness to the already uncertain environment, but markets seem to be strutting along just fine. Fueled by excitement over artificial intelligence and lower interest rates, indexes reached new records last week. OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, hit a record $500 billion in valuation, making it the most valuable non-public company. This obviously helped names like Nvidia and other semiconductors reach all time highs and eclipsed all worries around the government shutdown and lack of economic data. What we should’ve gotten:Last week, markets were expecting the latest U.S. unemployment rate, which was forecasted to be 4.3%, but the shutdown prohibited the...
Weekly Stock Market Update & SPY Technical Analysis Labor market data is back in focus this week with several employment reports scheduled over the next five days. These numbers carry extra weight given growing concerns about the health of U.S. hiring. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted last week that weakness in the labor market was a key factor behind the recent rate cut, and revised data showed job creation has been well below average in recent months. The most closely watched release will be Friday’s unemployment rate, expected to hold steady at 4.3%. A surprise increase could raise fresh red flags, as elevated unemployment often signals recession risk, a scenario many economists already see as likely within the next year....
Weekly Stock Market Update & SPY Technical Analysis The long-awaited interest rate cut happened last week and it propelled markets to another new record high, this time pushing the small-cap Russell 2000 index to its first all time high in years. Now all major indexes are sitting at record highs, pushing valuations of the stock market to levels beyond the dot-com bubble. Despite the astronomical valuations, investors seem to be marching forward and remain optimistic thanks to artificial intelligence spending and ongoing support from the administration. This week’s focus shifts to inflation data, GDP, and more comments from Fed officials. Inflation data is especially important because this will be the very first report after the interest rate cut, and although...
Weekly Stock Market Update & SPY Technical Analysis The entire market rally since the April correction has been building toward this week, when the Federal Reserve is finally expected to cut interest rates, a move that would unlock cheaper borrowing costs and stimulate both consumer and business spending. The lead-up has felt almost surreal, with markets brushing aside persistent inflation and labor market softness. Yet equities have pushed to record highs on the anticipation of rate cuts, confident that looser monetary policy will not only open capital markets but also fuel an even greater wave of investment into AI. Interest rates and earnings are ultimately what control market cycles. When The Fed raises rates, borrowing becomes more expensive for businesses...
Weekly Stock Market Update & SPY Technical Analysis The market hit another record high last week as investors shrugged off weak U.S. labor data and focused on the path to rate cuts. The economy added just 22,000 jobs in August, with earlier months revised lower, highlighting the drag from high rates, tariffs, and rising costs. While tighter policy curbs inflation, it also slows growth and hiring. With inflation around the 2% target and unemployment edging higher, the Fed has more reason to pivot, and markets are betting easier policy will arrive soon, even as the economic backdrop weakens. Markets climbing to new highs in the face of economic weakness is a perfect reminder that the stock market isn’t the economy....
