Weekly Stock Market Update & SPY Technical Analysis
Inflation is back in focus this week as markets brace for the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports. Recent data from the PCE report showed inflation climbing to 2.6%, its highest level in months, driven in part by tariffs, with projections pointing to further price increases as those effects persist. These two upcoming reports will provide a clearer view of price pressures from both the consumer and producer sides. Higher inflation pulls the economy further from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, lowering the likelihood of a rate cut. While weak labor market data recently pushed the odds of a September cut above 90%, a renewed surge in inflation could reverse that trend, complicating the Fed’s path forward. Certain industries and stocks are more sensitive to interest rate projections, giving us opportunities to take on depending on the results.
Despite the macro uncertainty, markets are setting new records and shrugging off negative headlines. Just a few years ago, an inflation spike might have rattled investors, but sentiment has shifted, especially with large-cap tech earnings still exceeding expectations. Earnings and interest rates remain the two biggest market drivers…the first box has been checked, and with President Trump pushing aggressively for a rate cut, investors appear confident the second is only a matter of time.
This week will also bring the latest retail sales report, with economists expecting a 0.5% increase. While retail sales data doesn’t always move markets, it remains a key gauge of consumer behavior. Since consumer spending accounts for roughly two thirds of U.S. GDP, and retail sales make up a significant share of that, these results can offer valuable clues about the economy’s growth trajectory for the quarter. There are specific stocks that will see more impact than others based on the results, we’ll be watching for opportunities in them if growth exceeds expectations and sharing them with our Hyper Stocks Pro members.
Last but not least, the U.S. Consumer Sentiment report will be released Friday, providing further insight to consumer sensitivity to the current economic situation. Consumer sentiment fell to lows not seen since the Great Depression earlier this year following Trump’s tariff announcement, but it has clawed back slowly as the initial shock was relieved. We want to see that positive trend continue on this report to reignite confidence.
Earnings to Watch This Week
- Circle Internet Group – Tuesday, before market open
- On Holdings – Tuesday, before market open
- CoreWeave – Tuesday, after market close
- Deere & Co. – Thursday, before market open
- Applied Materials – Thursday, after market close
While many companies are reporting this week, these are the key names on our radar. Earnings can set the tone for a stock’s performance for weeks / months after results are released. CoreWeave and Applied Materials, in particular, will be important to watch, as strong numbers could spark renewed buying in the semiconductor sector, influencing major players like Nvidia and AMD. We’ll provide updates as the results come in real time for our Hyper Stocks Pro members.