Weekly Stock Market Update & SPY Technical Analysis
Markets are getting ready to wrap up a very successful July, but the week ahead may be crucial to projecting how August’s sentiment will be. Between key economic data, tariff deal deadlines, and earnings reports from several large cap companies, markets have an important week ahead that could reinforce them at these record highs or make way for a pullback across overstretched names.
On the economic front, here are the reports in focus:
- Q2 GDP Data (Wed)
- FOMC Interest Rate Decision (Wed)
- Fed Chair Powell Press Conference (Wed)
- PCE Inflation Index (Thu)
- U.S. Unemployment Rate (Fri)
- Consumer Sentiment (Fri)
The combination of these reports may seem scary, but it’s actually welcomed by investors. See, what markets hate most is uncertainty, and there’s been a ton of looming uncertainty around the economy and interest rates recently. These reports offer answers to investors starving for information.
This week’s GDP report will be pivotal in determining whether the U.S. economy is officially in a recession. In the first quarter, GDP contracted by -0.5%, largely due to a surge in imports as companies rushed to stockpile goods ahead of tariff implementation. That import spike weighed heavily on economic growth, dragging it down to near-recessionary levels. However, a recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. That makes the upcoming Q2 reading crucial, if it also shows contraction, it would confirm that the U.S. has entered a technical recession.
Wednesday’s FOMC interest rate decision and Powell press conference is the most important economic event of the week. With growing pressure from The White House for The Feds’ to cut rates, all eyes will be on the decision and what Powell says, especially after Trump visited the Federal Reserve and had an awkward interaction with Powell. The Fed is walking a tightrope as they debate whether or not it’s safe to cut rates yet, especially as tariffs introduce new inflation concerns. Inflation questions will also be answered this week upon the release of the PCE Index.
And to wrap up the economic week, U.S. unemployment data will be released before market open on Friday. The unemployment rate is expected to increase to 4.2%, a subtle increase from last month’s 4.1% reading. The labor market has remained strong during the high interest rate environment, which is good for the economy, but it also makes it harder to tame inflation. The same day of the U.S. unemployment data will mark the beginning of August, which is also the supposed trade deal deadline (previously extended from July 9th).
Apart from economic data, earnings reports will be a major topic this week. Big companies like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Boeing, Chevron, Exxon…and many more will be releasing their quarterly earnings data. With major indices sitting at record highs, the numbers from these companies will play a vital role in investor sentiment. Right now, the fear and greed index is reading 74 out to 100 towards the extreme greed side, so positive data could easily send markets higher. We'll be updating the data outcomes and any key directional changes in our morning daily updates for our Hyper Stocks Pro members.