Weekly Stock Market Update & SPY Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 reaching a record 7,000 seems like a long shot at this point as markets head into the final full week of the year. Over the past few weeks and leading up to this point, delayed economic reports shed light on key data that went missing during the government shutdown, including critical inflation and unemployment statistics. Investors were hoping the data would carry markets higher, but skepticism around the validity of the data kept buyers at bay along with other factors.
The data:
Labor market - Fed Chair Powell’s exact words were that we’re in a “slow hire, slow fire” job market, where companies aren’t hiring much. The reason? Some blame AI and some blame high interest rates. The U.S. unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.7% in recent months, if we keep going towards 5%+ then we risk a recession in 2026.
Inflation - The latest consumer price index showed that November inflation rose at a 2.7% annual rate, the slowest reading since July. However many economists have stated that the report may be unreliable because of the way the data was collected due to the government shutdown.
The uncertainty surrounding recent economic data, combined with growing concerns around elevated AI valuations, has kept markets largely range bound since late October. After spending most of the year conditioned to near-weekly record highs, investors are now being forced to adjust to a slower, more selective market environment, one where upside requires confirmation from earnings, guidance, and macro clarity rather than multiple expansion alone. This period of consolidation may feel uneventful on the surface, but it is often the groundwork for the market’s next meaningful move.
This week’s focus:
- GDP Q3 Data (Tue)
- Durable Goods Orders (Tue)
- Consumer Confidence (Tue)
- Initial Jobless Claims (Wed)
- Christmas Holiday (Thu)
We’ll be providing analysis on the data as it is released in our daily market update throughout the week for Hyper Stocks Pro members.
SPY Technical Analysis:
While the macro trend of the overall market has remained bullish, the micro / overnight trend has struggled. SPY had been stuck in an overnight downtrend for a while, but Friday’s close actually regained the uptrend, possibly setting us up for a slow rally this week. 700+ seems like reach, but it is not impossible. Lets see if this week’s data can carry us to that finish line!