Weekly Stock Market Update & SPY Technical Analysis
Markets roared back last week as traders bet on a holiday rally fueled by optimism around an interest rate cut in December. According to CME Group, the chances of a rate cut have surged to 86.4% following the most updated economic data, which is seen favorable by markets to fuel business and consumer spending.
The Federal Reserve meeting and rate decision aren’t scheduled until December 10th, so until then, our focus will be on further economic data. For this week in specific, here are the key reports we’re watching:
- S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI (Mon)
- ADP employment data (Wed)
- Initial jobless claims (Thu)
- U.S. trade deficit (Thu)
- PCE index / inflation data (Fri)
- Consumer sentiment (Fri)
We’ll be breaking down the results each report in our daily market update, sent to our Hyper Stocks Pro members.
There’s definitely a lot of data coming to kick off the new month, and to top it off, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Monday night, which can really set the tone for the week. Investors will be looking for comments about the economy and where The Fed stands on interest rates. In his last speech, Powell highlighted weakness in the labor market and stated that the government shutdown was hindering The Fed from making proper decisions; however since then, the government has reopened and more data has been released. Data has favored a rate cut.
Black Friday:
Americans spent a record $11.9 billion on online Black Friday, up 9.1% from last year. This comes as a surprise considering consumer sentiment is near all time low and the labor market is struggling, but either way, the news is welcome. Consumer spending makes up roughly 70% of the U.S. GDP, making their habits extremely important and strong indicator of overall economic health. We may see an uptick in retail stocks this week following the record weekend, we’ll be eyeing opportunities in the space as they come up and sharing them with our Hyper Stocks Pro members.
The Finish Line:
Monday marks the start of the final month of the year, and based on last week’s close, the market wants to finish strong. Buyers started buying the dip last week and the momentum can continue if Powell’s speech and economic data are optimistic this week. That’ll fuel a “Santa Rally” into the final weeks of the year and perhaps into a “January Boom.”
SPY Technical Analysis:
Can SPY reach 700 before end of year? That’s really what’s on everybody’s minds. The option chain expiring on December 31st is projecting a (+/-) $27 move. The index is very close to its record highs of 686.00-690.00, which is the resistance range to break in order to see 700.00+. The sooner it breaks, the higher chances it’ll reach the 700.00+ record before end of year. We’ll continue updating key levels in our daily morning update for our Hyper Stocks Pro members.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of capital. Always conduct your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Hyper Stocks and its contributors may hold positions in some of the securities or assets mentioned above. These positions are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed reflect current views at the time of writing and are not guarantees of future performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results.