Weekly Stock Market Update & SPY Technical Analysis
April has been a wild ride for stocks, with record-setting moves both up and down in a headline-driven market. As the month wraps up, investors are asking: will we finish April in the green? This week brings critical tests as key economic data and major earnings reports hit. Here’s the breakdown:
Monday – No major events scheduled
Tuesday – Advanced retail/wholesale inventories, Consumer Confidence, Job Openings
Wednesday – ADP Employment, Q1 GDP, Consumer Spending, PCE Inflation Index
Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims, Construction Spending
Friday – U.S. Unemployment Rate
Recession fears are already high, and the Q1 GDP report could add fuel to the fire. A recession is typically defined as two straight quarters of negative GDP growth. Recent imports data show companies rushed to beat tariffs, which drags on GDP (imports subtract from GDP, exports add). Economists expect Q1 growth of just 0.4%, down sharply from 2.4% last quarter. A negative reading would increase the odds of a recession this year.
Beyond GDP, classic recession signals - rising unemployment and falling consumer and industrial activity - will also be in focus. Consumer spending, construction data, and the unemployment rate are front and center. Unemployment is expected to hold steady at 4.2%; any surprise uptick would add to recession concerns.
On inflation, the PCE Index will offer fresh insight. While tariffs are expected to eventually push prices higher, analysts still see inflation slipping from 2.5% to 2.2% for now.
Meanwhile, the biggest names in tech, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon all report earnings Wednesday and Thursday after the bell. Early tech earnings have been solid, but tariff uncertainty has been a common theme. Expect a similar tone from these giants.
SPY Technical Analysis:
SPY managed to regain its 550.00 mark last week, a pivotal point for both buyers to defend. With so much data dropping this week, we run the risk of gapping down on any surprise headlines, which could take SPY below 550.00 again. The first pull back target if SPY doesn’t hold 550.00 would be around 538.00-539.00. But if things go smoothly, the rally should go on and we may see SPY fill its gap to 562.00.