Weekly Market Update & SPY Technical Analysis
Markets recorded their worst performance of 2025 last Friday following disappointing consumer sentiment data. The final reading for February came in at 64.7, falling short of the expected 67.8. While the miss was modest, it added to a growing list of concerns weighing on the market. Other key stressors include stalled progress on inflation, Trump’s tariffs, and heightened global political uncertainty. Together, these factors created the perfect storm to drive markets lower, with weak consumer sentiment serving as the final trigger.
What to Watch This Week
Heading into this week, investor sentiment is expected to remain fragile as markets focus on key economic data and corporate earnings.
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Economic Data:
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Tuesday: The consumer confidence report will be released in the morning. Given last week’s disappointing sentiment data, a weak confidence reading could fuel further downside.
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Thursday: The second estimate of Q4 GDP is due, with expectations holding steady at 2.3%.
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Friday: The PCE report— the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—will take center stage. Inflation is projected to decline from 2.6% to 2.4%. If the data aligns with expectations, it could serve as a positive catalyst for markets.
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Earnings Reports:
Several major companies are set to release earnings, including Nvidia, Home Depot, Intuit, Salesforce, and Dell.
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The most anticipated report is Nvidia’s, which could significantly impact market sentiment. The past year’s rally has largely been fueled by the AI boom, with Nvidia at its core. Investors will be watching closely not just for the company’s earnings results but, more importantly, its forward guidance.
SPY Technical Analysis
Despite Friday’s sharp sell-off, the broader market remains in a strong uptrend. Traders should remember that red days are a normal part of any rally, especially in times of heightened uncertainty. Market conditions haven't fully shifted, and strength can still be found in select sectors and industries. We’ll continue to focus on these areas, many of which are highlighted in our weekly watchlist.