SPY Technical Analysis & Weekly Stock Market Update


Chart done on hourly timeframe. Buyers crushed sellers last week as indexes once again moved to all time highs to start off the new month. Markets shrugged off an uptick in inflation per the PCE report and despite the chances of a rate cut in March being diminished, optimism is flowing in the market. Last week we also saw the latest GDP revision of Q4 2023, which came in at 3.2%, missing the 3.3% estimates, but markets remained unfazed by the small miss. This week’s attention shifts to the labor markets. U.S. payroll data is set to be released on Friday and estimates are much lower than the previous reading. The last payroll data came in at 353,000, but analysts are expecting non-farm payrolls to drop to 210,000 MoM. The unemployment rate is expected to remain flat at 3.7%, which is still an impressive low considering the current interest rates. Multiple Fed members are also set to give speeches this week and Fed president Jerome Powell will be testifying to Congress. 

Technical analysis:

Friday’s breakout day on SPY was accompanied by strong buying volume and relative strength. Buyers are still controlling the trend and will remain in charge as long as SPY holds the 507.40 level. 504.40 is our main support in focus below that, then we see a large territory with no support till 493.55.