Chart done on hourly timeframe. What seemed impossible not too long ago is transpiring in the market as indexes head to their sixth week of consecutive gains. Buyers have propelled stocks to new 2023 highs, some even to new all time highs, but this week will be a big test as the final Fed meeting of the year is set to take place. The two day FOMC meeting is set for this Tuesday and Wednesday, The Fed will give an update on their stance on monetary policy and interest rates. According their most recent Beige Book Report, members of The Fed are all in agreement that their interest rate decisions will be based on economic reports and ongoing developments. Recent economic data suggests that inflation has been cooling on both the consumer and the producer indexes, and the unemployment rate is still at a historic low. This likely means that the chances of another rate hike is very unlikely and it is more likely that they will give a timeline for rate cuts.
Either way, this week’s meeting will bring about more validity than recent weeks in the market. SPY’s implied volatility for Wednesday’s options is currently reading at 17.24%, so markets are expecting about a $5.19 move after the rate decision (could be either up or down). Last week’s move on SPY brought it to close just below the 462.00 resistance, we’re looking for a breakout above that level to see the next price target of 465.00.