SPY Technical Analysis and Stock Market Update 03.27.2023-03.30.2023


Chart done on five minute and daily candles. Market volatility declined to end the week last week, but SPY’s volume saw an increase again following the Federal Reserve’s action to raise rates by 25 BPS. The long-awaited decision was a surprise to many considering the recent bank headwinds the world economy has been facing, but Powell’s comments about U.S. banks were positive. Powell reassured investors that The Fed is overseeing banking conditions and will be ready to assist if needed to keep depositors safe. During that same time as Powell’s conference, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she potentially may not insure all banking deposits to depositors in failed banks. The opposing comments from Powell and Yellen sent stocks on a wild ride, but SPY and many other names managed to close in a bullish uptrend for the week. This week will be a bit calmer since economic reports are on the lighter side, the biggest focuses are the PCE report, U.S. Q4 GDP report, and the consumer sentiment reading.

Technical analysis:

VIX, the market volatility index, declined following the Fed’s meeting as markets’ response to the rate hike was fairly in a tight range. SPY reached a high of 402.50 and a low of 385.20, so this will be our range in focus for the week. If SPY breaks 402.50 then the bullish price target is 405.00-408.00. Below 388.20 it can fall to a bearish price target of 380.00-383.00.