Rivian (RIVN) Pre-earnings Analysis


Chart done on daily timeframe. Shares of Rivian are trading near their all time lows ahead of their quarterly earnings. Investors of the company who purchased shares since their public market debut have been on a wild ride. Rivian shares reached a high of nearly 200.00 at one point before entering a long correction period that seems to still be going on. Electric vehicle companies as a whole experienced a similar path that Rivian has as sales fell and demand fluttered, but Rivian is one of the few names that has a standing chance in the future of EV. The consumer direct vehicles have surpassed expectations, reaching more than 50,000 in 2023, but unfortunately their profitability moved the other way. Like many other companies in the space, Rivian is yet to see profitability and seems to be far from it, which has been the historical trend for vehicle manufacturers. Tesla, the leading EV maker, suffered for many years before finally turning a profit a few years ago, and even since then their profitability has been shrinking. 

With that being said, the main focus for Rivian investors should be revenue trends. Young companies generally suffer years before they turn profits, especially companies in a new space or an industry that has expensive parts and manufacturing. Rivian’s revenue has grown consistently over the last four years and as long as they keep that trend then they have a fighting chance. Their partnership with Amazon is the biggest highlight we can make in terms of their survival. With a 17% stake, Amazon is unlikely to let Rivian fail as they have already began using their vehicles as delivery trucks. 

All in all, Rivian falls under a high risk high reward investment and shouldn’t take up a large portion of a portfolio. The stock can still come around and 5x or 10x over the next decade, but they will need to maintain and grow their Amazon relations and grow the demand for their vehicles across the globe.