AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Analysis
AST SpaceMobile is aiming to be disruptor in the communications market, attempting to deliver space based coverage directly to peoples’ cell phones. If you’re familiar with StarLink, which focuses on satellite based internet, this is similar but more geared towards cell phone connections.
The company is positioning itself as a frontrunner in the sector, aiming to launch continuous service in the U.S. by late 2025, a key reason the stock has drawn so much attention. Still, much of that excitement remains speculative, given that no service has been fully delivered yet. On the positive side, ASTS already has five commercial-grade satellites in orbit, demonstrating real progress, with another 45–60 scheduled for launch in 2026.
Reviewing the financials, ASTS is still generating minimal revenue. However, with service launches planned in the U.S. this year and in the UK, Japan, and Canada next year, the company is projecting $50–70 million in revenue over the next 12 months from both commercial and government clients. These are ambitious targets since the company is only generating about $1 million per quarter in revenue right now.
Their wins on revenue are deeply eclipsed by their net income, which has widened to nearly $100 million in losses in the last quarter. The company is burning cash trying to get its ambitious products off the ground, but that makes them highly speculative until they do deliver on their promises. The market is keeping them alive right now based on the potential they have, but potential alone can’t keep a company afloat. This is part of the reason corrections on stocks like these hit hard, as they are usually high risk to hold and not yet safe to call a long term bet.
Nonetheless, the projects ASTS has in place do have the potential to disrupt the communications industry, making it a hot name to watch when confidence does return to the markets, especially if they can begin delivering on their promises. But investors should keep in mind the risk of investing in an early stage company, particularly one in a fiercely competitive market and that’s already trading at a high valuation.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of capital. Always do your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.