Weekly Stock Market Update & SPY Technical Analysis
The stock market accelerated back towards all time highs following plans of a ceasefire last week, showing us how ready buyers are to take action when the Iran-U.S. conflict ends. However those buyers will be tested this week as ceasefire talks stall and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
Iran is playing hardball against the demand of the United States. Negotiations between Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf failed to find a solution on the nuclear sticking point, which is really the most important point for the U.S. and Israel…it’s why the U.S. supposedly attacked Iran in the first place…so if there’s no deal on this, the U.S. would essentially “lose” this war.
Stock Market & Economic Implications:
Covering war updates on a daily basis can be brutal for investors, especially when there’s so much misinformation going on. The U.S., Iran, and Israel are all reporting different things, leading to higher than usual volatility on the market.
This type of environment creates what we call headline driven trading, where markets aren’t necessarily reacting to fundamentals, but to rapidly changing news flow. One day we get talks of de-escalation, the next we get threats around the Strait of Hormuz, and that alone is enough to swing oil prices and risk assets aggressive. From a macro standpoint, the biggest driver here is energy. Oil has already surged significantly since the conflict began, and continued disruptions could push prices even higher, feeding directly into inflation. This puts central banks in a tough position, they may want to cut rates to support growth, but rising energy costs make that harder, which keeps financial conditions tight and pressures equities.
For investors, this translates into a “push and pull” market. Energy and defense names tend to benefit, while broader indices struggle with uncertainty, higher input costs, and weaker sentiment. Until there’s clarity on the geopolitical front, expect sharp swings, false breakouts, and elevated volatility…not because the market is broken, but because the narrative is constantly changing. We’re constantly adjusting our positions and highlighting the industries and stocks that are set to benefit from the changing environment, but it’s important to understand that macro headwinds tend to slow down return times for swing trades, so patience is key while the uncertainty passes.
Earnings Season in Full Swing:
Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and other major financial institutions are set to kick off earnings this week. Paying attention to bank earnings is one of those “under the hood” signals that tells you what’s really happening in the economy before it shows up in headlines. The data could give insights on consumer spending, borrowing, business activity, credit quality, load defaults, and more.
Moreover, other major companies like ASML, TSMC, Netflix…etc. are also set to report this week. ASML and TSMC are especially important because they are major players in the semiconductor industry. Higher earnings could foreshadow strong earnings from Nvidia and other big AI companies. We’ll be covering their earnings and the impact throughout the week as the data is released for Hyper Stocks Pro members.
SPY Technical Analysis:
Unless something changes between the writing of this analysis and the morning bell on Monday morning, the market is likely to gap down following the stalemate between the U.S. and Iran. We learned last week that 680.00 was a tough resistance to break, which is the main resistance going forward for buyers if they manage to maintain the trend. 650.00 is a bearish pivot point.
Analysis by Q. Ali Founder, Hyper Stocks
Focus: Equity Analysis | Macro Economics | Swing Strategy
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of capital. Always conduct your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Hyper Stocks and its contributors may hold positions in some of the securities or assets mentioned above. These positions are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed reflect current views at the time of writing and are not guarantees of future performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results.