Weekly Stock Market Update & SPY Technical Analysis
It became clear last week that The Federal Reserve is caught between a rock and a hard place. The Fed, who have a dual mandate to maintain price stability and maximize employment, now face the difficult task of balancing stubborn inflation against signs of a weakening labor market. The latest twist? A sharp rise in oil prices, which will ripple through the economy if sustained.
But it’s not all bad. During his press conference last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell did tout the U.S. economy and its resilience against uncertainties. The Fed even revised their growth outlook for 2026, signaling that despite inflation and a slow hire / slow fire job market, the economy is still trending positively.
This week’s focus:
No matter how positive The Fed was last week, the only news that seems to matter to investors right now is regarding the war in Iran. Mixed signals from the White House and Israeli media have driven uncertainty higher, and failure to provide an adequate timeline suggests that the war may be slipping out of control. What was supposed to be a “quick” operation is now possibly moving in a direction of a ground invasion. The war is already costing billions and risking a global recession as oil hits triple digits. Smaller economies around the world who rely on energy imports are paying a big price…the longer, the more impact.
No matter how good of a stock investors pick right now, the timeline should be stretched because we know little about the war’s outlook. There are seasons in the market where momentum is high and fear is low, but also seasons when fear is plaguing the market as a whole and driving valuations lower. The idea is to slowly buy the dip until fear is alleviated, but also not to be aggressive on buying too soon (this is why easing in / DCA is a good approach). We form our watchlists with this approach in mind, and only focus on stocks that have both strong fundamentals and industry presence.
Stocks under $10 we're buying during the market downturn:
Economic calendar:
- U.S. productivity Q4 (Tue)
- S&P flash U.S. services / manufacturing PMI (Tue)
- Import price index (Wed)
- Initial jobless claims (Thu)
- Consumer sentiment (Fri)
We’ll be covering these reports in our morning analysis and commenting on their impacts on the market / specific sectors.
SPY Technical Analysis:
We found a pretty interesting occurrence on SPY this weekend…one that dates back to exactly five years ago. On March 23rd, 2020, SPY found its “bottom” from the Covid-19 crash and reversed to post one of the most historic bullish rallies. Coincidently, this Monday marks exactly five years and SPY is up nearly 200% since. This is a reminder that near-term uncertainty shouldn’t discourage you from the long term outlook. While the trend now looks weak, possibly enough to take SPY to retest 560.00-580.00, history will repeat itself and investors will likely slowly buy the dip and clarity returns.
Analysis by Q. Ali Founder, Hyper Stocks LLC
Focus: Equity Analysis | Macro Economics | Swing Strategy
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of capital. Always conduct your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Hyper Stocks and its contributors may hold positions in some of the securities or assets mentioned above. These positions are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed reflect current views at the time of writing and are not guarantees of future performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results.