Weekly Market Update: Is the SPY Recovery Real? Iran Tensions & PCE Data Loom
Article written by Q. from Hyper Stocks
Markets kicked off April on a high note as investors bought the dip and moved stocks off their 2026 lows. Both The Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 bounced back out of correction territory, and the S&P 500 managed to escape hitting its official correction level.
Despite the efforts from buyers, bulls can’t get too comfortable yet. U.S.-Iran tensions escalated over the weekend, with increased aggression and threats from both sides. Iran shot down multiple U.S. aircraft, and Trump has given Iran yet another timeline to “end the war” by Tuesday evening, or he threatened to strike “every power plant,” essentially cutting off Iran’s energy.
The Geopolitical Wildcard: US-Iran Deadline
As intense as all this is, the heart of the matter isn’t about peace for markets, it’s about the U.S. and global economy. In a field where numbers matter more than “right and wrong,” the market is monitoring this data:
- Oil prices
- Bond market
- Interest rates
- Inflation
- Unemployment
Why This Matters
Oil sits at the center of it all. When energy prices surge, the effects ripple through the entire economy….raising costs for businesses, squeezing consumers, and fueling inflation. The longer prices stay elevated, the more strain they place on global growth. As pressure builds on the U.S. economy, investors begin demanding higher yields to compensate for rising risk and inflation, which in turn pushes interest rates higher. So even if The Fed attempt to lower rates, the bond market will set it on its own if this fighting is prolonged. This can slow the economy and impact the labor market.
A "Small Win" in the Labor Market
Speaking of the labor market, the market was closed during last week’s U.S. unemployment report. The U.S. unemployment rate actually declined in March to 4.3%, beating the 4.4% consensus. This is a “small win” for markets during a time where positive news is slim to none.
Economic Calendar for the Week:
- Durable goods orders (Tue)
- Iran-U.S. war deadline (Tue)
- Minutes of FOMC (Wed)
- PCE Index / Inflation data (Thu)
- GDP (Thu)
- Wholesale inventories (Fri)
We’ll be covering these reports and highlighting key data from them in our morning analyses throughout the week for Hyper Stocks Pro members.
SPY Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
The SPY (S&P 500 ETF) bounce last week moved it above its 10 day moving average, which means it’s not trading higher than its average price over the past ten days, but it’s still below other significant moving averages like the 20 and 200. There’s definitely still work to do from buyers, with 663.00-665.00 being the strongest resistance from here (right around the 200 DMA). A move above has a target of 673.00-678.00.
Analysis by Q. Ali Founder, Hyper Stocks
Focus: Equity Analysis | Macro Economics | Swing Strategy
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of capital. Always conduct your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Hyper Stocks and its contributors may hold positions in some of the securities or assets mentioned above. These positions are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed reflect current views at the time of writing and are not guarantees of future performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results.