Weekly Stock Market Update & SPY Technical Analysis
Death, taxes, and investors buying the dip…those seem to be the three guarantees in life. We witnessed a phenomenal market comeback since the start of April, as if investors left their troubles behind in March and reversed course into the new month. The Fear & Greed Index moved from extreme fear (below 20), to a high reading of greed (62)…all it took was a hint of a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran.
Bear Market Bounce vs Actual Recovery:
The question on everyone’s mind is whether or not this bounce will hold. To make an informed decision, one has to look at what truly drives markets, interest rates and earnings.
Interest rates: Federal Reserve policy has a massive impact on markets. If you notice, the topic Wall Street was focused on during the recent oil spike was inflation…that’s because if inflation spikes, interest rates are likely to do so too. But with oil prices cooling, rates do so too, and it gives investors hope that more rate cuts are underway in 2026 (as originally planned). The next FOMC meeting / interest rate decision is scheduled for April 29th, we’ll be updating the results of that meeting as they’re released.
Earnings: At the end of the day, the market is a place to buy and sell businesses…making earnings results the other primary focus for investors. Corporate earnings have already been hitting records, hence why investors are willing to pay top dollar and keep pushing markets higher. The next two weeks are absolutely critical as the markets biggest companies report quarterly earnings. It could be the biggest test for this rally.
Iran Situation:
Mixed signals, mixed signals everywhere. The White House, Israeli Media, and Iran seem to be on completely different pages, leaving investors confused whether or not the ceasefire is actually in effect, and if the Strait of Hormuz is actually open. Headlines and breaking news continue to impact markets from day to day, but with greed now outweighing fear, the dips are likely to be short lived and smaller than before (unless something drastic happens).
Economic Calendar this Week:
- U.S. Retail Sales (Tue)
- Initial Jobless Claims (Thu)
- S&P Flash U.S. services PMI (Thu)
- S&P Flash U.S. manufacturing PMI (Thu)
- Consumer Sentiment (Fri)
We’ll be highlighting any key updates in our daily morning analysis.
SPY Technical Analysis:
You guys prepared for a lesson? Here’s a little something about liquidity grabs…and how you can make a lot of money if you play them right. As shown in the chart above, the orange marker highlights SPY’s consolidation from the start of 2026 until early March…this was followed by a 10% correction, which forced a ton of buyers to sell their positions…who usually buys these shares at the discount? Institutional buyers and Wall Street. Retail traders and investors running for the exits provide Wall Street the liquidity they need to buy massive amounts of shares (usually in dark pool hours). The forced selling usually breaks the obvious supports, where people usually have their stop losses, before a reversal and eventual breakout…the longer the timeframe this happens on, the more “significant” the signal becomes.
For SPY, the green market highlights the breakout above the 698.00 resistance, which held the index back from January to March. That makes 698.00ish the most significant area of support going forward…buyers are currently in a “blue sky” breakout with no resistance in the way.
Analysis by Q. Founder, Hyper Stocks
Focus: Equity Analysis | Macro Economics | Swing Strategy
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of capital. Always conduct your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Hyper Stocks and its contributors may hold positions in some of the securities or assets mentioned above. These positions are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed reflect current views at the time of writing and are not guarantees of future performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results.