The April Playbook: Chasing Crude or Buying the Small-Cap Rotation?


Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)

Current: 18.45

Price target: 22.00-23.00

Second PT: 25.00-27.00

Earlier in March, the Trump administration invoked the Defense Production Act to restart a key pipeline supplying oil to the West, as pressures from the ongoing global energy crisis continue to build. This pipeline runs 120 miles near the California shore and was once a massive producer but has been largely dormant since a 2015 pipeline spill. 

ExxonMobil initially operated this pipeline, but Sable Offshore acquired it with plans to rebuild it. The company has been in a high stakes legal drama, with California officials attempting to halt the restart (due to safety and environmental reasons), but the Defense Production Act now green lit it to start flowing on April 1st. 

Sable recently secured an agreement with Chevron to purchase an initial 20,000 barrels per day starting April 2026. At $100 a barrel, the company can generate a significant amount of revenue very quickly from the elevated oil prices, especially if they expand production to full capacity at 50,000 bpd (that would be about 15% of California’s total state production). 

How they are doing financially 

As of late March 2026, the forecasts for $SOC have shifted from "speculative" to "high growth high risk" following the federal intervention. Because the company is transitioning from a development stage entity to an active producer, the numbers are swinging wildly…especially with oil price volatility. The company plans to start at 20,000 barrels per day April 1st and scale to 50,000 bpd by June…that takes them from zero revenue to a significant amount in a short period, but execution risk is real…so is the threat of California’s lawsuit. 

The Santa Ynez Pipeline is aged and hasn’t been active for more than a decade, leaving it susceptible to leaks and issues, any hint of that could sink the stock dramatically and it may never comeback…plus a hidden clause that reverts the assets back to Exxon in the case Sable fails to maintain commercial production is another thing to consider.

In the very near term, we’re playing this stock based on the pipeline restart + the high oil price catalyst, but it NOT a safe “buy and forget” name by any means. We’ll be taking on a smaller position with the risks in mind, and managing it accordingly to the company’s execution ability, oil prices, and legal updates.

Please note that the stock includes risks and price targets are subject to change based on market developments and company updates. These stocks usually take time to come around and the outlook may change. Trade at your own risk. 

Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF (AVUV)

Current: 106.00

Price target: 130.00-135.00

Second PT: TBD

There’s a historic opportunity in the market right now, where the spread valuation between two major indexes exceeds levels not seen since the Great Depression. The valuation gap between growth and value is stretched to historic extremes. Small caps are projected to outgrow large caps for the next twelve months:

  • Small caps: 19-22% expected earnings growth
  • S&P 500: 12-13% expected earnings growth 

What this means: 

That means the S&P 500 ($SPY) may not be the big winner in the coming years, it could be small cap indices like the Russell 2000 ($IWM) and Avantis Small Cap Value ($AVUV). Rather than picking individual small caps, these ETFs give you exposure to hundreds of companies and eliminate the risk of single point failure. Yes, you pay a small fee for that, but it helps one sleep at night. 

With that being said, the ETF doesn’t come without risk or headwinds. Right now, the biggest (and newest) issue is the U.S.-Iran conflict. Rising geopolitical tensions can drive energy prices higher, reignite inflation concerns, and delay potential rate cuts, all of which disproportionately impact small cap companies that rely more heavily on financing and domestic demand. On top of that, small caps tend to carry higher beta, meaning sharper drawdowns if the broader market weakens.

The bigger picture:

Zooming out, this is where patience comes into play. These types of setups don’t resolve in weeks, they unfold over cycles. If inflation cools and the Fed begins easing over the next 12–36 months, it lowers borrowing costs and expands valuations for smaller companies. At the same time, tailwinds like reshoring, fiscal support, and improving productivity could begin to show up more clearly in earnings. 

Please note that the stock includes risks and price targets are subject to change based on market developments and company updates. These stocks usually take time to come around and the outlook may change. Trade at your own risk. 

Current: 46.00

Price target: 55.00-60.00

Second PT: TBD

There’s a high growth story happening in this health technology stock, one that could transform it from a mid-cap stock to a large cap leader in the sector. The company recently turned profitable as hitting their fifth year of commercial revenue by scaling their flagship therapy _________. This is the first and only FDA approved therapy for...unlock full analysis in Hyper Stocks Pro.

Current: 29.10

Price target: 31.00-32.00

Second PT: 34.00-36.00

When it comes to the market landscape in 2026, investors are rewarding companies with predictable revenue streams and strong balance sheets while selling young and high growth tech stocks. 

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Current: 48.39

Price target: 53.00-55.00

Second PT: 59.00-60.00

The energy industry is clearly the only winner so far this year as the price of oil soars. Big oil companies like Chevron and Exxon are bound to enjoy a significant expansion in earnings as prices stay elevated, but they are not the only game in town. There are dozens of smaller, lesser known players in the oil industry worth looking into.

We’ve already covered names like APA Corp ($APA), SM Energy ($SM), Devon ($DVN), and Energy Transfer ($ET) in our watchlists over the recent months. These names have all enjoyed massive rallies in recent weeks as oil prices rise, moving past our price targets. We’re now adding...unlock full analysis in Hyper Stocks Pro.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of capital. Always conduct your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Hyper Stocks and its contributors may hold positions in some of the securities or assets mentioned above. These positions are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed reflect current views at the time of writing and are not guarantees of future performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results.