Nebius Group ($NBIS) Pre-earnings Analysis
Nebius Group has become a popular bet on “all things AI” as the company builds vertically integrated infrastructure for training and deploying Large Language Models (LLMs). Their core business is providing massive GPU clusters (primarily Nvidia’s) with specialized software layer designed to reduce latency…something critical for AI training. This means every time a company is buying GPU power from Nebius, they’re automatically attaching their software and creating revenue.
The company is targeting 800MW to 1GW by end of 2026, compared to just 170MW in 2025. That’s a huge jump, and very aggressive. There are many data center projects that are delayed, and shortages are also a big threat.
Customer Concentration
Nebius does have close to $50 billion on their backlog, but much of it is concentrated to customers (Meta and Microsoft). That leaves them vulnerable to any chances in these companies’ spending strategy. Even if they did expand beyond these two companies, Nebius still faces challenges to secure enough power to build data centers.
Competition & Advantage
Competition is fierce from hyperscalers like AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft’s Azure. CoreWeave is another worthy competitor. However Nebius’s advantage is their recent partnership with Nvidia, which gives them priority access to next gen chips like Blackwell. This is a highly sought after chip, but the question is whether or not Nebius can build enough power to support it.
Financials
The $50 billion backlog is attractive, but the company is still burning cash at a rapid pace. Revenue grew 500% last quarter to $227.7M, while net income fell 82% to -$249.6M. And although revenue is set to grow rapidly through 2029 (assuming demand stays strong), the company does not have a timeline to profitability.
Option Chain Analysis
NBIS’s option chain expiring on June 18th 2026 currently reflects an implied volatility reading of 110%, which translates to about a $50 move from the underlying stock following the report. Whether that’s bullish or bearish depends on the outcome of the earnings call and performance.
The current implied volatility is at its higher point on $NBIS compared to the past twenty days. This suggests you’re paying a premium for options, but it also does support a possibility of a bigger move.
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