Bloom Energy (BE) Pre-earnings Analysis
Bloom Energy bloomed as a phenomenal trade over the past two years as the stock rallied more than 2,500% by the time it hit its record highs in last month. But since then, $BE has been cut in half, falling 46% as a correction overtakes the data center buildout play.
Early on, Bloom Energy became a clear picks and shovels beneficiary of the AI data center power shortage. The company’s technology became increasingly relevant, and the stock market didn’t hold back to at “rewarding” them for it. At a market capitalization near $53 billion, we would describe Bloom as a high quality growth story trading at a very demanding valuation, not an undervalued stock today.
We initiated coverage on Bloom Energy in 2025…since then, it has posted a monster rally.
If you’re not familiar, here’s a quick summary of what the company does:
Instead of burning fuel in a traditional turbine or generator, the “Bloom Energy Server” system converts natural gas, biogas, hydrogen or a fuel blend into electricity through an electrochemical process. And it generally produces fewer local pollutants than combustion based generation.
Bloom Energy’s pitch is to install power directly beside a data center, factory, hospital or commercial property, helping them avoid waiting years for a new utility grid connection. This is obviously a powerful pitch in a time when data centers are being built at a rapid pace and regulatory + power challenges are the biggest challenge. Bloom says its systems can reach nearly 100% availability and can sometimes be installed in approximately 90 days. That speed has become extremely valuable because grid connections and large gas turbines can take several years to secure.
Major Projects & Partnerships
The company has partnered and initiated contracts with names like Oracle, Brookfield, American Electric Power, and more. These contracts are worth billions of dollars and give Bloom Energy revenue visibility for years to come, however execution matters, and so does the AI spending cycle, which seems to be under question leading into the company’s earnings.
With Bloom Energy now down nearly 50% from its 12 month highs, the question is whether or not the earnings report will “save” it, or if it’ll add to the pain. The true answer is nobody knows until after the report, but one of our favorite ways to decide whether we want to buy before an earnings report or not is through one simple question…”is this a stock I’d want to be stuck in?”
Hyper Stocks Summary
When we first found Bloom Energy, it traded at $22, not $184. That means it has MUCH cheaper and presented a much better value for our dollars…now it has growth to an enormous market cap and it’s hard to justify buying at such prices. It’s revenue growth is solid, and management is managing the business well, but we wouldn’t want to be stuck in this at a 20-22x price to sales ratio…perhaps if it gives a strong dip on earnings, it’d be worth an entry ONLY if they continue to post strong revenue growth and outlook. They’ve had a good record, but only last quarter’s revenue grew substantially…one quarter isn’t good enough to keep buyers interested, especially when sentiment is poor.
Option Chain Analysis
Bloom’s option chain expiring on August 21st 2026 currently reflects an implied volatility reading of 179%, which calculates to about a (+/-) $75 move from the underlying stock following the report. Whether the stock exceeds that range, or falls short of it, will ultimately depend on the earnings results, guidance, and management's commentary during the conference call.
The current implied volatility is at its lower point on $BE compared to the past twenty days. Imagine 1 was the average / neutral point of how “expensive” IV…right now, Tesla's IV ranks around 1.34, meaning options are trading at an expensive price compared to their recent average. So, the options market is pricing in a bigger than normal earnings move. $BE would need to post a substantial move (likely more than $75 to one direction) for it to return strong profits on single leg options (assuming you get the direction right and the strike isn’t far OTM).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of capital. Always conduct your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Hyper Stocks and its contributors may hold positions in some of the securities or assets mentioned above. These positions are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed reflect current views at the time of writing and are not guarantees of future performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results.